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The Michigan county that picks presidents now tests the Democrats 25%
By Peter Alexander0%
8/4/2026, 4:39:40 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 12 faulty reasoning types, including Framing Effect, Recency Bias, and Negativity Bias, with Availability Heuristic as the most egregious example at 15.7% saturation with 110 hits. Analysis detected 460 faulty-reasoning hits from 700 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 31.8% and a BS Rank of 25% (20,304 of 26,881 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 75.50% of the article peer group.
Michigan’s Saginaw County has a record of picking political winners — accurately selecting each of the last five presidents.
On Tuesday, voters here are participating in a primary that captures a choice their party is wrestling with nationwide.
With a seat crucial to its chances of earning a Senate majority this fall, do Democrats nominate the candidate party leaders considered the most electable, or the one the progressive base prefers?
Rep.
Haley Stevens is the pick of most party leaders, who see her as a moderate, swing-district winner built for a general election.
Abdul El-Sayed is the choice of the left, running on Medicare for All and reducing the influence of money in politics.
Tuesday’s winner will face Republican Rep.
Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes out of 5.5 million cast statewide; in Saginaw County, that race ended in a near tie, even as President Donald Trump won .
For some voters, a margin that thin makes electability the only question that counts.
Norman Braddock, a former city councilman of Saginaw who identifies as an independent, cast an absentee ballot for Stevens.
“I’m worried that El-Sayed can’t beat Mike Rogers,” he said.
“That’s my main concern.”
For Braddock, the primary “is more about November than it is about August.”
His advice to undecided Democrats was blunt.
“Choose the strongest candidate,” he said.
“Even though the Democrats have a lot of momentum, you still have to choose the person, ‘cause Mike Rogers is no joke.’”
Daniel Rozel, a Republican who voted early for Rogers, sees it the same way.
Asked which Democrat would be harder for his party to beat, he named Stevens.
Not every Democrat accepts that logic.
To some, the party’s pattern of choosing candidates for their electability is itself part of the problem.
Stephanie Tuttle, a 37-year-old stay-at-home mother of six, said she is not satisfied with how Democrats have handled Trump’s second term — “not even close.”
What would she like to see in her candidate?
“A backbone.”
She wants elected officials who “are actually going to work for the people and hold integrity when they take office.”
Autumn Reyes, who drives through the county for work, rejected the premise that the safer nominee is the surer one.
Palatable is not winning,” she said.
What she hears instead is “nothing but these establishment politicians, and it’s not — it’s Democrats, it’s Republicans, it’s both sides.”
Alesha Martin-Lane, co-owner of Kakes the Great, which opened in Saginaw last month, had a message for national Democrats weighing which candidate is more electable.
“Have faith in their voters, listen to their voters,” she said.
“Move forward with what we know needs to be done and stand 10 toes deep in it.”
Turnout is another worry — both in the primary and the coming general election.
“Lack of turnout really concerns me,” Braddock said.
Reyes sees El-Sayed signs everywhere and spotted her first Stevens sign only last week — proof, to her, that his supporters exist and will show up.
Her own vote, though, is less certain, depending on who Democrats nominate.
“I absolutely would not vote for Mike Rogers,” she said.
But asked whether she would turn out for Stevens if she’s the nominee, Reyes was noncommittal: “Maybe.
Maybe not.”
What happens here will have a national impact.
Republicans control the Senate by a 53 to 47 margin.
Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority.
In recent months, that’s suddenly seemed achievable — but only if they hold Michigan and Georgia, two Democratic-held seats in states Trump carried in 2024.
Forecasters rate Michigan a toss-up despite no Republican winning a Senate race here since 1994 .
An Emerson College survey in late July showed El-Sayed leading Stevens, 54% to 39%.
Earlier in the month, a Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News had Stevens ahead by seven points.
Whoever wins tonight is expected to face Rogers in November — and, most likely, another close call in Saginaw that could determine control of the Senate.
Speakers
5speakers30%attributed speech490writer words
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54%flagged-word coverageAutumn Reyes
39 attributed words19% of attributed speech63% writer coverage
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