Map Shows Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State 3 Months Until Midterms ^⁠30%

8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM

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With three months to go until the November 3 midterm elections, new polling suggests President Donald Trump enters one of the most politically important stretches of his second term facing a more challenging landscape than the one he inherited when he returned to office.

State-by-state data shows Trump underwater in every swing state, meaning even small shifts in voter sentiment could help determine control of Congress in November.

The data comes from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of 120,580 responses from registered voters.

A Newsweek analysis compares Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026, with where it stood on January 20, 2025, the first day of his second term, with net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.

The White House has consistently pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, arguing that voters delivered a mandate for the administration's agenda.

Key Points

Nationally, Trump's approval rating stands at 36 percent, while 59 percent disapprove, leaving him with a net approval rating of -23.

The state-by-state picture reflects the same broad pattern: strongest in Republican territory, deeply negative in Democratic strongholds, and underwater across the battleground states likely to shape the outcome of the midterms.

Several states that began Trump’s second term with positive net approval now sit in negative territory.

Some of the biggest declines since January 2025 have come in Republican-leaning states that once formed the president’s strongest base.

Younger voters, independents and postgraduates remain among Trump's weakest demographic groups.

**Use the map below to explore where Trump's approval rating stands in each state three months out from the midterm elections**.

Why It Matters

Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, a nonprofit that researches, engages, and advocates for independent voters, said Trump's "pretty rough" position, which he described as a "collapse among the middle third of the electorate," could create challenges for Republican candidates in November.

"Being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents can't count on Trump to lift them across the finish line," Loyd told Newsweek.

But he said Democrats should not assume dissatisfaction with Trump will automatically translate into support for their party, arguing that they "aren't automatically reaping the rewards."

"It's not an automatic green light for Democrats either," he said.

How Trump's Numbers Compare With Previous Midterms

By comparison, at an equivalent point ahead of the 2022 midterms, Joe Biden stood at 36 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval in Civiqs polling, a net rating of -19.

While Trump's current numbers are slightly weaker, both presidents entered the final stretch before their first midterm elections with more voters disapproving than approving of their performance.

However, Trump's current standing is notably weaker than it was heading into the 2018 midterms.

At a comparable point before those elections, Civiqs polling showed Trump on 43 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, for a net approval rating of -10.

His current net rating of -23 leaves him 13 points worse off nationally than he was ahead of his first midterm election.

What The Demographic Data Shows

The national demographic breakdown helps explain the state-level trends.

Trump remains weakest among younger voters.

Among those aged 18 to 34, just 22 percent approve of his job performance, compared with 72 percent who disapprove, according to the newest Civiqs data.

Among voters aged 35 to 49, approval stands at 29 percent, while 63 percent disapprove.

Independents also remain negative, with 28 percent approving and 64 percent disapproving.

Women disapprove by a 65-to-30 margin, while men are divided at 53 percent disapprove to 42 percent approve.

Education remains another major dividing line.

Among postgraduates, approval stands at 24 percent compared with 72 percent disapproval.

Among non-college graduates, the split narrows to 39 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove.

These demographic patterns help explain why Trump performs more strongly in conservative states while struggling in many battleground and metropolitan areas.

Deep Red States Still Back Trump

Trump's strongest numbers remain concentrated in the Republican heartland.

Wyoming and North Dakota are his best states with net approval ratings of +19, followed by West Virginia at +15, Alabama at +13 and Idaho at +13.

South Dakota stands at +7, while Oklahoma posts +8.

Yet even many of Trump's strongest states have seen substantial erosion since the beginning of his second term.

Wyoming opened at +47, North Dakota at +34 and West Virginia at +35.

Kentucky illustrates the shift particularly well.

The state began Trump's second term with a net approval rating of +23.

It now stands at -5, representing one of the steepest declines anywhere in the country.

Support across much of the Republican map remains intact, but the margins are noticeably smaller than they were in January 2025.

Swing States Remain Underwater

The battleground map continues to present one of the clearest warning signs for Republicans heading into the midterms.

Trump is underwater in every major swing state:

Arizona: -11

Georgia: -22

Nevada: -21

North Carolina: -15

Pennsylvania: -18

Wisconsin: -16

Florida: -12

Ohio: -13

Several of those states were either positive or evenly balanced when Trump took office.

Florida has moved from +9 to -12.

Ohio has fallen from +8 to -13.

Nevada has shifted from 0 to -21, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -15.

Those deficits are not necessarily decisive on their own, but they highlight a consistent trend: Trump's standing remains weakest in the states most likely to determine political control after November.

Where Approval Has Fallen The Most

Every state in the tracker has seen a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.

Some of the biggest declines have occurred in states where Trump initially enjoyed some of his strongest support.

Among the largest drops:

Kentucky: +23 to -5 (down 28 points)

Wyoming: +47 to +19 (down 28 points)

Oklahoma: +31 to +8 (down 23 points)

Florida: +9 to -12 (down 21 points)

Nevada: 0 to -21 (down 21 points)

Idaho: +34 to +13 (down 21 points)

Iowa: +6 to -14 (down 20 points)

Tennessee: +25 to +5 (down 20 points)

Ohio: +8 to -13 (down 21 points)

West Virginia: +35 to +15 (down 20 points)

The pattern is notable because many of the sharpest declines are occurring in red or red-leaning states rather than places where Trump already faced entrenched opposition.

Loyd said some of the sharpest drops in traditionally Republican states may reflect frustration among voters who expected economic stability rather than continued political conflict.

"A 28-point drop in Wyoming or a 21-point drop in Idaho isn't a sudden conversion to progressive liberalism," he said.

"Red-state conservatives and suburban moderates didn't transform into Democrats overnight; they are experiencing severe fatigue with constant unforced political drama and ideological warfare when what they wanted was lower costs and stability."

Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative

Trump's weakest ratings remain concentrated in Democratic-leaning states.

Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating at -60, followed by Vermont at -55, Maryland at -52, Massachusetts at -46 and California at -44.

Washington stands at -41, Oregon at -42, Connecticut at -41 and New York at -37.

In these states, the story is less about dramatic movement and more about opposition remaining firmly entrenched.

Trump was deeply underwater when he began his second term and remains so today.

Loyd noted that some of the largest declines have occurred in Republican states partly because Democratic states started from much lower levels of support.

"Heavily Democratic states hit their floor on Trump on Day 1," he said.

"You can't drop much lower when you start at 25 percent approval."

The Middle Of The Map Has Tightened

One of the more striking features of the current map is how many states are clustered close to the line between positive and negative territory.

Indiana stands at +2.

Nebraska is -3.

Louisiana is -4, while Mississippi sits at -1 and Missouri at -7.

That clustering suggests a country where the overall partisan geography has not fundamentally changed, but where many state-level margins have narrowed considerably.

The broad political map still looks familiar.

The cushion underneath it is smaller.

What The White House Says

Spokesman Davis Ingle has repeatedly highlighted what the White House describes as progress on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.

In comments the administration has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, Ingle argued that "no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump" and said the administration believes "this is just the beginning" as the president's agenda continues to take effect.

What Happens Next

Loyd cautioned against reading too much into approval ratings alone, arguing they need to be viewed alongside other political indicators.

"I never view presidential approval in a vacuum," he told Newsweek.

"When you cross-reference Trump's approval today with the generic ballot and prior election baselines, what you're looking at is a classic 'rubber-band' election snapping back from two years ago."

Loyd said the current environment bears some resemblance to the political dynamics that preceded the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost control of the House, though he noted that post-2020 redistricting may leave today's GOP incumbents better protected.

"I see glimmers of 2018 here," he said, "with one major caveat: post-2020 gerrymandering leaves House Republicans a little more insulated this time."

Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Trevor Davies.

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Map Shows Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State 3 Months Until Midterms ^⁠30%

Speakers

Brett Loyd

Analysis

Biases

Fallacies

Map Shows Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State 3 Months Until Midterms ⁠30%

Speakers

Brett Loyd

Analysis

Biases

Fallacies

Map Shows Trump’s Approval Rating in Every State 3 Months Until Midterms ^⁠30%